Unemployment Rate

ICYMI: Pandemic-era Labor Market Perpetually Beat CBO’s Expectations (And New Research Suggests A Rapid Recovery Is Here to Stay!)

• According to a recently published NBER working paper titled Temporary Unemployment and Labor Market Dynamics During the COVID-19 Recession, the labor market will reach a 5% unemployment rate by June 2021 – more than 5 years sooner than the CBO’s July 2020 baseline.

(About the Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate measures the amount of joblessness an economy has as a percentage of its labor force.)

NFIB Small Business Survey

Small Business Optimism Reaches Historically High Level in September

• Small businesses reported high foot traffic, sales, earnings, and employee compensation in the previous month.
• More business owners planed on creating new jobs.
• Over 20% of small businesses reported that their biggest problem is finding qualified labor.

(About the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index: The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index provides an insight into small businesses’ sentiment and economic outlook on labor markets, capital spending, sales, etc.) 

Retail Sales

Retail Sales Beat Expectations During 5^th Month of Continuous Growth

• Retail sales increased by 1.9% when economists expected 0.7% gain.
• Excluding auto sales, retail sales increased by 1.5% compared to the 0.4% expectation.
• Motor vehicle sales increased by 3.6% with used cars and truck sales experiencing its largest monthly increase since 1969.

(About Retail Sales: The Census Bureau reports monthly the amount of sales that occurred in retail and food services. This report provides a perspective on the health of the economy as more than two-thirds of the economy is fueled by consumer spending.) 

Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE)

Consumers Hold Optimistic Expectations Over September

• Consumers expect improvements in the job market.
• Consumers feel better about their own financial situations and expect to spend more.
• Consumers do not expect to be delinquent on their debt.

(About the Survey of Consumer Expectations: Composed by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the SCE surveys households’ views on job prospects, earnings, spending, access to credit, and their economic outlook.)

Coming Up:

NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales

When: Monday, October 19, 2020; Tuesday, October 20, 2020; and Thursday, October 22, 2020

About the Housing Market Index: The Housing Market Index surveys NAHB members to give a sense of current and future housing market conditions.

About Housing Starts: Housing starts details the amount of new construction of residential buildings.

About Existing Home Sales: Existing home sales measure the amount of sales of previously constructed single-family homes, condos, and co-ops.

Federal Reserve Beige Book

When: Wednesday, October 21, 2020

About the Federal Reserve Beige Book: The Beige Book provides anecdotal information on the current state of the economy through key business contacts, economists, market experts and other sources from each Federal Reserve Bank district.