Over half of families with two kids who pay for child care would be forced to pay a $27,000 Toddler Tax under Democrats’ Washington takeover of child care, according to a new study by Casey Mulligan, a University of Chicago professor who previously served as chief economist of the White House Council of Economic Advisers during the Trump administration.
- Child care costs could increase by up to 122 percent for some Americans because of the bill’s increased regulation of the industry and the lack of incentives for providers to offer cheaper care.
- Families that earn just $1 more than the median income in their state in the first year are stuck footing the entire bill, while subsidies to certain low-income households will simply mask the price of child care using an income-based formula.
- Even the left-leaning People’s Policy Project found that families would be hit by massive price increases in Democrats’ proposal, and this could exacerbate the worker shortage: “Under this plan, [some parents] have to quit their job in order to afford child care.”
As Mulligan writes: “It is challenging to forecast how families would cope with such harmful and disruptive changes in childcare costs. Many families may respond by withdrawing a parent or relative from the workforce to provide the care. Marriages may break apart. Parents desperate to avoid such elevated childcare costs may begrudgingly decide to put their children into the custody of aunts, uncles, or grandparents where subsidized care is available.”
Rep. Jackie Walorski (R-IN), the lead Republican on the Ways and Means Subcommittee on Worker and Family Support, wrote in a Washington Examiner op-ed: “If Democrats succeed in jamming through their radical agenda, these programs could expire in 2027 — but the shock waves of skyrocketing costs, fewer child care choices, and lost opportunities for our children will remain far longer.”