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Economists Warn of Rising Recession Risks

April 14, 2022

With devastating inflation pushing the U.S. economy further into a worsening wage-price spiral that has the country barreling towards a recession, Republican Leader on the Ways and Means Committee Rep. Kevin Brady (R-TX) warned:

Many Americans believe our economy is already in a recession or depression and have lost faith in the President’s ability to rebuild an economy that works for them.”

It’s not just American families who are worried. Top experts agree:

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers:

“The painful fact, though, is that historically when we’ve had inflation above 4 percent and we’ve had unemployment below 4 percent, essentially always, since World War II, that’s been followed by a recession within the next two years.”

Demond Lachman, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute:

“In past inflationary cycles, the Fed has had little success in taming inflation without precipitating a recession. There is every reason to think that this time around will not be different.”

Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America:

“Inflation shock’ worsening, ‘rates shock’ just beginning, ‘recession shock’ coming.”

Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Chief U.S. economist:

“Our baseline forecast has negative quarters for growth in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, consistent with a recession during that time. The mild recession we anticipate should nonetheless lead to a meaningful rise in unemployment, which peaks above 5 percent in 2024.”

The Washington Examiner highlights that risks of a recession are rising with every month:

“A year ago, just about 1 in 10 of the economists surveyed predicted the onset of a recession in the next 12 months. The number leaped to 18 percent at the start of this year and is now registering at 28 percent.”

Excerpts from the Wall Street Journal survey of economists:

​​​​​​​Robert Fry of Robert Fry Economics:

“The longer the Fed waits to get inflation under control, the deeper the recession will be.”

Amy Crew Cutts, of AC Cutts & Associates LLC:

“Fed actions to curb inflation will lead to a recession sooner rather than later.”

READ: Economists Warn of Looming Recession

Key Background:

Inflation skyrocketed after President Biden’s “COVID stimulus” forced small business owners to raise prices as government spending increased their costs, a worker shortage left them desperate for workers, and looming tax hikes threatened their futures.

Now with a recession looming, working families who lost wages under the Biden Administration are now at risk of losing their jobs. Americans’ economic security is at risk during a period of heightened uncertainty in national security that is forcing workers to pay even higher gas prices.