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Chairman Smith Statement on the 2025 Medicare and Social Security Trustees Reports

June 19, 2025

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (MO-08) released the following statement on the 2025 Social Security and Medicare Trustees Reports:

“This week’s report makes clear how much we need pro-growth tax and economic policies that unleash our nation’s growth, increase wages, and create new jobs to help strengthen these Trust Funds for those who rely on them and to protect them for generations to come. The One, Big, Beautiful Bill would do just that and also provide much-needed additional relief to America’s seniors who struggled for four years in the Biden economy.

“Ways and Means Republicans stand firmly behind President Trump and his commitment to protect and strengthen Medicare and Social Security for current and future beneficiaries. Millions of American seniors, individuals with disabilities, and their families rely upon these programs to make ends meet, and it is vital that Congress protect these programs.”

Key Findings and Projections – 

Social Security:

  • The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund is projected to become exhausted and unable to pay full benefits starting in 2033, the same as last year’s report.
    • If the OASI Trust Fund becomes exhausted, the program will only be able to pay roughly 77 percent of scheduled benefits.
  • In 2024, the total cost of Social Security benefits was $1.485 trillion, exceeding income by $67 billion.
  • The Trustees continue to project Social Security’s total costs to exceed total income indefinitely.

Medicare:

  • The Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund is projected to become exhausted and unable to pay full benefits starting in 2033, three years earlier than last year’s report.
    • At that point, the program will only be able to pay roughly 89 percent of scheduled benefits.
  • The Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI) Trust Fund does not face insolvency due to its financing structure. 
  • In 2024, the total cost of Medicare benefits (HI and SMI) was $1.122 trillion, with HI income exceeding expenditures by $28.7 billion.
  • The Trustees estimate HI surpluses will continue through 2027, followed by deficits until depletion in 2033.